Global Market Intelligence
Market intelligence that tells you what would prove it wrong.
GMI registers calls, scores outcomes, publishes evidence, and converts uncertainty into board decisions. Every thesis has a falsification condition. Every call has a review date. Every score has evidence.
What Would Change Our View
Every major thesis in GMI has a published falsification condition — an observable trigger that, if met, would require us to revise or abandon the view. This is not standard market intelligence practice. It is the core of GMI's accountability discipline.
fragmentation-survivability-pricing
Markets are pricing survivability within fragmentation rather than growth within globalisation.
Would be proved wrong if: Risk assets, credit, and management commentary stop differentiating by resilience, policy exposure, or supply-chain optionality.
supply-chain-optionality-premium
Operational resilience is now a capital markets variable. Lean-optimised supply chains carry a structural risk premium that was not present before Q1 2026.
Would be proved wrong if: Equity markets stop differentiating by supply chain resilience posture. No observable valuation premium for firms with documented optionality investments.
tariff-regime-structural-impairment
China-to-US supply chains should be treated as structurally impaired, not temporarily disrupted.
Would be proved wrong if: Implemented tariff relief returns below structural-impairment levels and firms unwind optionality plans.
usd-risk-off-anomaly
Dollar weakness under risk-off conditions may indicate credibility stress rather than normal safe-haven behaviour.
Would be proved wrong if: USD safe-haven strength resumes consistently when equity or credit stress rises.
Calls registered
8
Scored
8
Average score
3.1
Falsification rules
4
GMI Estate
GMI sits above Intelligence Briefs as time-bound, scored, reviewed intelligence. It strengthens Boardroom Brief and Strategy Room by turning market uncertainty into named operator decisions with falsification conditions.
/intelligence/gmi
GMI home: category claim, edition architecture, and buyer orientation.
/intelligence/gmi/q2-2026
Static operator dashboard for the current draft edition.
/intelligence/gmi/calls
Public read-only call ledger and track record.
/intelligence/gmi/performance
Public performance centre: score distribution, failures, carried-forward calls, and methodology versions.
/intelligence/gmi/falsification
Public falsification register showing what would prove major theses wrong.
/intelligence/gmi/methodology
Locked methodology, rubric, evidence posture, and release blockers.
/intelligence/gmi/operator-brief
Free operator brief: summary, watch signals, decisions, and selected prior-call record.
/intelligence/gmi/board-pulse
Public board-level one-page decision signal.
/intelligence/gmi/red-team
Governed challenge intake for calls, assumptions, and falsification thresholds.
/intelligence/gmi/use-cases
Boardroom use cases and commercial routing from public GMI proof to paid depth.
/boardroom-brief
Board-facing challenge dossier (user-supplied inputs; does not constitute verified board evidence) when the dashboard identifies board-level action.
/strategy-room
Live decision intervention when the dashboard identifies severe strategic consequence.
The quarterly product line
Global Market Intelligence publishes on a quarterly release rhythm. Each issue registers calls with falsification conditions and is reviewed and scored after its decision window. The current issue is the active release; prior issues remain in the verified archive.
Current issue
Global Market Intelligence Q2 2026
The current published issue. Current decision window: Q3 2026.
Forthcoming
Global Market Intelligence Q3 2026
Release candidate. Not yet the current published issue.
Access model
Entitlement-controlled. Access to the current issue and the archive is governed by the GMI product family, not sold issue-by-issue by default.
Distribution
Restricted distribution. Intelligence is shared under controlled access, not published as open market commentary.
Not investment advice
GMI is decision intelligence under a call-review methodology. It is not investment advice and does not direct the allocation of capital.