Falsification register

Every major thesis states what would prove it wrong.

These rules are not decorative caveats. They are the public threshold for changing the view.

Data source: gmi_falsification_rules (DB). Last updated 2026-06-06T22:17:40.056Z.

fragmentation-survivability-pricing

Markets are pricing survivability within fragmentation rather than growth within globalisation.

monitoring

What would prove it wrong

Risk assets, credit, and management commentary stop differentiating by resilience, policy exposure, or supply-chain optionality.

Observable signal

No observable valuation, credit, or analyst distinction tied to resilience posture across the review window.

Threshold

qualitative: No differentiated pricing or commentary by 2026-09-30.

Evidence posture

3 linked rows. Next review 2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z.

The fragmentation pricing thesis was directionally confirmed in Q2 review (CALL-001 scored 4). The falsification condition remains active: if markets stop differentiating by resilience posture, the thesis would need revision. Next review: Q3 2026.

supply-chain-optionality-premium

Operational resilience is now a capital markets variable. Lean-optimised supply chains carry a structural risk premium that was not present before Q1 2026.

monitoring

What would prove it wrong

Equity markets stop differentiating by supply chain resilience posture. No observable valuation premium for firms with documented optionality investments.

Observable signal

No consistent valuation spread between firms with disclosed supply-chain optionality and those without, across a full earnings cycle.

Threshold

qualitative: No observable optionality premium across Q2-Q3 2026 earnings cycles.

Evidence posture

3 linked rows. Next review 2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z.

The optionality premium thesis is partially confirmed in Q2 but requires Q3 evidence across a full earnings cycle to confirm whether the premium is structural or episodic.

tariff-regime-structural-impairment

China-to-US supply chains should be treated as structurally impaired, not temporarily disrupted.

monitoring

What would prove it wrong

Implemented tariff relief returns below structural-impairment levels and firms unwind optionality plans.

Observable signal

Sustained implemented tariff relief, not negotiation headlines, with matching operator behaviour.

Threshold

numeric: Effective tariff burden below 50% for a full review window.

Evidence posture

1 linked rows. Next review 2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z.

This remains a major falsification test for Q2/Q3 because policy relief must be implemented, not announced.

usd-risk-off-anomaly

Dollar weakness under risk-off conditions may indicate credibility stress rather than normal safe-haven behaviour.

intact

What would prove it wrong

USD safe-haven strength resumes consistently when equity or credit stress rises.

Observable signal

USD strengthens across repeated risk-off episodes.

Threshold

binary: Safe-haven USD behaviour resumes across the next two material stress episodes.

Evidence posture

2 linked rows. Next review 2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z.

The public posture is monitoring; the rule states what would downgrade the concern.